The Looming MAGA-Muslim Axis
Currents
A few months after I graduated from NYU, my peers took to the streets of Lower Manhattan, tents and intersex-inclusive Progress Pride flags in hand, to protest for Palestine. They demanded, among other things, for “Genocide Joe” to end all American support for Israel, the destruction of the “zionist entity”, and, naturally, “death to America.” Meanwhile, Trump pontificates on the “Muslim Problem”, the Quran’s “very negative vibe”, and how “Islam hates us” — to speak nothing of past proposals about creating a national Muslim registry or banning immigration from Muslim-majority countries.
For all their seeming differences, however, the American right and American Muslims are actually aligned on a great many issues — not least among them a disdain for LGBT and women’s rights. But in espousing anti-Muslim rhetoric and policy, the political right alienates this natural ally and forces them to the left. As I watched the anti-Israel protests, I couldn’t help but wonder: what happens when right-wing populists realize they have more in common with American Muslims than they do with NYU graduates? How would the political and cultural lines be redrawn, and would I need to fear for my rights as a gay person?
American Muslims are far more socially conservative than the average American — in fact, they are on par with the average MAGA Republican. When asked whether society accepting homosexuality is a good thing, just 52% of surveyed US Muslims say yes, compared to 54% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats. In a 2019 poll of American Muslims, about as many said they were bisexual as society in general, but precisely 0% of the more than 800 respondents said they were gay or lesbian. The MAGA-Muslim alignment is especially pronounced on culture war issues. In just the past year, American Muslims in Maryland have protested against the LGBT “indoctrination” of children in public schools. In Virginia and Michigan, US Muslims have joined right-wing culture warriors in advocating for a ban on school libraries carrying books depicting same-sex relationships. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the largest Muslim civil rights group in the country, issued statements in support of the bans.
This shared social conservatism could prove a strategic voting block for the Republican Party. Instead, Muslims, once considered allies by Republicans prior to 9/11, have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in every Presidential election since. The timing of the Muslim exodus from the GOP suggests that the shift is a result of post-9/11 Democrats being seen as less bigoted toward Muslims than Republicans. Similarly, over the past 20 years, shared values have been unable to bridge this gap between Muslims and Republicans. A 2024 poll by CAIR found that 89% of American Muslims believe that the Republican Party is “unfriendly” toward them, compared to 49% for the Democratic Party. The right’s anti-Muslim intolerance is so potent that it has repelled even the hardcore socially conservative Muslim bloc: 76% of Michigan Muslims — who last year in Hamtramck voted to ban Pride flags on public property and whose Muslim mayor endorsed Trump — also voted for Hillary Clinton.
But Israel’s war in Gaza — and Biden/Harris’s “ironclad” support of Israel — may prove another watershed moment in American Muslims’ political orientation. What happens when a cacophony of “Genocide Joe”s and “Killer Kamala”s drown out Trump’s ramblings about a Muslim ban, or his repeated observation, first voiced in a 2011 interview with Bill O’Reilly, that he “[doesn’t] notice Swedish people knocking down the World Trade Center”? What could happen is a political reversal: a de-facto Muslim alliance with the right. Already, a Muslim-led protest movement in Michigan’s Democratic primary over Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza saw 100,000 people vote “Uncommitted” rather than for Biden — dangerous in a state Hillary Clinton lost by only 10,000 votes.
In an August poll of US Muslim voters, CAIR found that the most important factor in determining whom Muslim voters would choose for president was candidates’ stance on “international human rights” — in other words, Israel-Palestine — and 98% of respondents disapprove of the Biden-Harris administration’s handling. A plurality of respondents report that they will vote third party, with only 29% planning to vote for Harris. This suggests that, like many NYU students, Muslim voters are not overly concerned by Donald Trump’s promise to let Israel “finish the job” in Gaza, because many see Biden/Harris as already finishing it.
The Democratic Party is losing Muslims, but is Trump positioning himself to gain them? No. In typical fashion, Trump is doubling down on his base. At a rally shortly after Hamas’s infamous October 7th attacks, Trump promised a cheering crowd that he would block Gazan refugees from coming to the United States and reinstate and expand his Muslim Ban. A concrete political alignment between these factions has yet to materialize. In the background, however, a massive online cultural alignment is taking place between Muslim men and the anti-LGBT (pro-MAGA) manosphere. Famous influencers like Andrew Tate (who converted to Islam in 2022), Red Pill Arabic, FreshandFit, and Tam Khan personify the new nexus between Islam, Trump support, gay-bashing, and misogyny, but I don’t foresee this nascent partnership stopping there.
Just as shared social conservatism is already linking Muslim men to the Manosphere, so too will it connect this new right-populist base to MAGA elites. Should this coalescing movement gain institutional influence, I would not be surprised to see a fresh pushback against same-sex marriage and trans rights, and an attempt to coerce women into “modest” dress and traditional roles. On a cultural level, this could manifest as simply less broad acceptance for public queerness — for instance in the current decline in support for same-sex marriage — and if unchecked, even private queerness. Fortunately, this push will be blunted by the population of liberals, including liberal Muslims, who are more proportionally numerous in the US than anywhere else. Hope lies in those who subscribe neither to right-wing reactionism nor to left-wing identitarianism (which each give rise to the other in an ouroboros of vitriol.)
One obstacle facing principled liberal challengers of this new alliance is that like any broken clock, social conservatives will occasionally be correct. After all, should public schools really be giving minors lessons about fisting? Is it truly tenable to have Supreme Court Justices who claim they cannot define “woman?” No. But the fight against these extremes will only integrate conservative Muslims and right-populists and legitimate their fight against actual LGBT rights. It’s their foot in the door.
So far, Trump’s relentless drumbeat of anti-Muslim epithets has kept Muslim voters away, but that may not always be the case. For one, every swing-state vote peeled from Harris and given to Jill Stein (whom 29% of Muslims plan to vote for) is essentially half a vote given to Trump. And second, we’ve seen this dynamic play itself out before. The “mass deportations now” right has already made significant inroads with the Latino voters they term “rapists” and “murderers.” A New York Times poll conducted shortly before Harris became the nominee showed American Latinos, long a Democratic voting bloc, favoring Trump over Biden. This too is partially a result of the critical social justice activism’s leftward push on immigration, a topic on which most Latino voters are quite conservative.
Thankfully, thus far, the right’s nativist leanings have prevented it from seizing on the NYU-left’s gift of a new constituency. But as the new school year brings a fresh wave of protests at elite universities, once again I wonder: how long before the MAGA-Muslim détente? And what hard-fought rights will we be forced to defend next?
Published Sep 27, 2024
